A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
