Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Mounting apprehensions have emerged over the potential of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in last year that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to brief comments on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, state television has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this system and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the war was concluded – a decision that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down again.