Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
